2-18-08

Contrary to what the media would like you to believe, Barack Obama is on the ropes. Here is the delegate count.

Clinton 1235 Florida 105 Michigan 77 Total 1417

Obama 1302 Florida 67 Michigan 0 Total 1369

Clinton is leading Obama by 48 delegates

Wisconsin adjoins Chicago. By all rights, if locals like Obama, he should clean Hillary's clock in Wisconsin. But if, just if, Obama looses Wisconsin to Hillary, it spells trouble for Obama.

Well you say Howard Dean is going to nullify Florida and Michigan's delegates. Not so fast! This delegate deal in Florida and Michigan should go to court and and the court system should kick around Howard Dean and DNC and turn them every which way but loose. When Howard Dean and the DNC throw out 2.5 million votes, they give themselves the power to pick the President, and goes against our Constitutional rights and the American way. No court in the land is going to give Howard Dean and the DNC and GOP the power to pick the president. Howard Dean knows when it comes to throwing out delegates fairly voted upon by state voters, he is going to lose. He is bluffing and his only hope to come out of this deal without egg on his face is to intimidate Hillary to quit the race. If Hillary is intimidated out of the presidency we have become a communi$t country.

Obama is saying Hillary wanting to include Florida and Michigan's delegates is changing the rules. Since when is allowing voters' vote changing the rules? When this country was formed there were no political parties. When people think of political parties what comes to mind? communi$m. When the DNC and the GOP usurp the voter's vote, the USA has become a de facto communi$t country. Obama wants to win and that is fine provided his desire to win does not include disenfranchising 2.5 million Florida and Michigan voters.

Howard Dean and John Kerry went to Yale and they are on the side of Little George and the Republicans. How do we know this? One could write reams on what Howard Dean and John Kerry have done for the Republicans. First of all, when John Kerry quickly conceded Ohio and the Presidency to Little George in 2004 this act spoke volumes - he is on the side of Little George, the Republicans, and a one party system. Howard Dean has been an advocate of Democratic caucuses and a caucasus is nothing more than the DNC directing rank and file Democrats who to vote. If it weren't for Howard Dean's Democratic caucasus Barack Obama would not even be in the race.

The New York Times, USA Today and the media which is giving the people the allusion Barack Obama is beating the pants off Hillary are owned by the same people who own Little George, the DNC, and the GOP, the Federal Reserve Fraud. That is, Jacob Rothschild, the Rockefellers ect.

Jacob Rothschild gets what he wants by ordering the media he owns to play the race card. What do the media have in store for us about Obama if Obama gets the nod to be the Democratic nominee for president? The Karl Rove type smut in store for Obama is much greater than I know. Here are just a little of the stuff I have heard which one can go to the bank Jacob Rothschild's media brings out on Obama if he is the Democratic candidate for President. Obama is not an American, but a Kenyan born on a military base in Hawaii. Obama is a Muslim and won't lay his hand on the Bible when given the Oath of Office. Obama was a drug ee who used crack and cocaine. Obama is anti-semantic. Obama is a first term senator and does not have the experience to be president.

People who read me know I believe the government behind the government, Big George's Omega Agency, Neocons, Jacob Rothschild is responsible for the gun shootings on college campuses. I am curious about the Northern Illinois shooting last week. Was this shooting scheduled to occur when Obama was in the General election to equate him with the gunman because he is from Chicago but for some reason the bad guys moved the date of the shooting up.

One cannot change the stripes of racists. If Barack Obama is the Democratic candidate for president there is no way Jacob Rothchild's media is not going to play the race card against him. Obama is being built up now by the media because the media knows they can play the race card against him in the General and throw the election to the Republicans. Why does Jacob Rothschild want the Republicans to stay in power? Neocon are fearful if there is a change in power in Washington the new power may punish those who have been breaking their Oath of Office to Protect and Defend the US Constitution. It would not be so positive the Neocons are desperate to keep the Republicans in power if it were not for the fact in many cases 100% of the Republican senators are voting for legislation which is clearly unConstitutional. How Jacob Rothschild gets 100% of Republican senators to vote for unConstitutional legislation is beyond me.

It would not surprise me if someone who reads this might label me as a racist because I do do not support Obama. I will remind readers of one of my most favorite expressions. "This country has a choice, stop the racism or die." My next suggestion I hope will cast doubt on those who may call me a racist. Obama as Vice President candidate may be viable. One can go to the bank knowing Jacob Rothschild is such a racist he would have a fit with Barack Obama as Vice President.

Even if Hillary starts winning primaries, which she will, I see Jacob Rothschild's Howard Dean and the DNC working their hearts out to make Obama the Democratic nominee for president. My hope is for Howard Dean to so misuse the power of the DNC to pick the president that something comes of it to hurt the power of the DNC and GOP and political parties. It is a travesty that in North Carolina an "Unaffiliated" voter cannot even get his name on the ballot to run for political office unless he gathers petition signatures amounting to 4 % percent of the registrar ed voters in the district he wants to run. Heck, I was in a political race, with Mike McIntyre, in which barely 4 % of the voters even voted! We are not living in my America when this is allowed to take place. North Carolina should be ashamed of itself! And so called Americans, party political leaders, wonder why people don't vote!

Don't think the Democratic voters in Ohio have forgotten John Kerry's quick 2004 presidential concession to Little George, either. John Kerry has aligned himself with Obama in Ohio and Ohio voters know John Kerry is a Republican one party advocate in Democratic clothes. This could hurt Obama in Ohio. Hopefully the Ohio vote fraud is a thing of the past. As a native Texan I see no way Obama can take Texas considering the Hispanic vote is clearly going for Hillary. Why is the Hispanic vote going to Hillary? Jacob Rothchild's NYT's type media has deliberately caused racism between Hispanic and Blacks and now this racism will to come back and hurt the Neocons. Mr Rothschild lives by racism, and he will die by racism.

The least dangerous least expensive way to stop the Federal Reserve Fraud and the bad guys is contribute to Randy Crow - Democrat for President.

The Following is a bunch of he said she said

Democrats Obama Clinton
Total Delegates 1302 1235
Pledged Delegates 1134 996
Popular Vote 9,534,440 8,830,610
Popular Vote (w/FL) 10,110,654 9,701,596

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

With the help of thegreenpapers.com the invaluable Green Papers, I made some calculations in a best-case scenario for Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas primaries. I assumed that Clinton won statewide in each case, and that Obama carried only congressional districts (or in Texas, state Senate districts) dominated by upscale white voters and/or black voters. This is an especially optimistic assumption in Wisconsin, where Clinton currently trails Obama by 4 or 5 percent in public polls. The results are as follows: a 44-30 delegate edge in Wisconsin, an 83-58 delegate edge in Ohio, and an 82-41 delegate edge in Texas. Overall this is an 80-delegate advantage, based (again I emphasize) on optimistic assumptions.

zzzzzzzzzzz

Even so, in Florida, Clinton would have earned 105 pledged delegates, 38 more than Obama's 67. In Michigan, where she was the only candidate to keep her name on the ballot, the state party has allotted her 73 delegates, 18 more than a bloc of 55 "uncommitted."

zzzzzzzzzzz

http://www.sheboygan-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080217/SHE0101/802170415/1973

The tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination means Wisconsin's primary Tuesday takes on deeper significance.

How delegates are chosen in Wisconsin

Republican: There are 40 delegates at stake, and the primary winner in each congressional district gets three delegates, for a total of 24. The statewide winner gets 13 delegates, and the remaining three delegates can choose whoever they wish.
Overall, the Democratic nominee needs to win 2,025 delegates; the Republican nominee needs to win 1,191 delegates.
Source: The Associated Press

The tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination means Wisconsin's primary Tuesday takes on deeper significance. AP photos

Posted February 17, 2008

Suddenly, Wisconsin of primary concern

Clinton-Obama race shines national spotlight on state

By Bob Petrie
Sheboygan Press staff

For those who really enjoy presidential politics in Wisconsin, these are heady times.

After decades of languishing among the also-rans of the nation's primaries to help choose the candidates for the country's highest office, Wisconsin's presidential primary on Tuesday once again has real meaning.

That's because even this deep into the primary season, the competition — particularly between Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — remains tight. Candidates from both parties are criss-crossing the state, their campaign appearances are soaking up lots of local and national TV airtime and are splashed on the front pages of newspapers, and thousands upon thousands are flocking to events for the chance to see who's running.

"There's a lot of activity on both sides which makes the Wisconsin primary more exciting than it's been in many years," said Jon Ward, 43, an Obama supporter from Washington, D.C., who grew up in Kohler and is back here this week to organize a local volunteer effort for the Illinois senator.

The interest is translating into huge expected voter turnouts for Tuesday's elections. Sheboygan County Clerk Julie Glancey estimates 60 percent of the county's 66,000 eligible voters will show up at the polls, which are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday. That'll be the largest percentage of voters here since 1980.

The reason?

"I think because right now it's (the presidential race) really wide open," Glancey said. "Had it all been cut and dried by the end of Super Tuesday (on Feb. 5), it wouldn't mean as much."

Obama has secured 1,112 delegates so far toward winning the nomination, while Clinton has 979. It takes 2,025 delegates to become the Democratic nominee, and 92 Democratic delegates are at stake in Wisconsin.

"It's a little bit more important this time," Richard Flannery, 63, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Sheboygan for the past 30 years, said of the Tuesday primary. "Because although Obama is sort of ahead, he's nowhere near close to being nominated."

Sen. John McCain of Arizona has a commanding 817 to 237 lead in delegates over his lone remaining rival, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. But Huckabee continues to doggedly hang in the race and has been drawing enthusiastic crowds in Wisconsin. The Republican nominee needs to win 1,191 delegates.

In Sheboygan, Michelle Obama came to visit last week to stump for her husband. On Friday, both Obama and McCain made stops in Oshkosh, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has been also actively campaigning all over the state.

On Saturday night, Obama and Clinton visited Milwaukee for the Democratic Party's state Founder's Day dinner, an event that had Angela Sutkiewicz of Sheboygan, the state Democratic Party secretary, thrilled at the opportunity to attend and greet the candidates at the Midwest Airlines Center.

"It's really been fun, personally," said Sutkiewicz, 46, an Obama supporter who was a classmate of his at Columbia University, class of 1983.

Carl Toepel of Sheboygan, a former alderman and social studies teacher who has been closely following presidential politics for about 50 years, says on the Democratic side, Tuesday's primary is perhaps the most important since John F. Kennedy battled Hubert Humphrey in 1960.

"It was a spirited race, kind of like Hillary and Barack," said Toepel, a Republican who traveled last week to Oshkosh to see McCain and to Waukesha to an Obama campaign appearance.

"I think what is so neat is the newspapers, the radio, the TV, the airwaves are full of political ads, the daily papers and the TV share the schedules o where the candidates are, and I hope that many families take their children to see the presidential candidates," Toepel said.

Andrew Bubb, 29, the county's Democratic Party chairman, was among the 17,000 people who jammed the Kohl Center in Madison last Tuesday to watch Obama, and came away with a feeling that voters of all ages are excited about the primary.

"I think everybody is, young folks, old folks; everybody's taken a bigger interest that I've ever experienced," Bubb said.

Flannery said young people on campus are becoming more politically active; a trend he says began in 2004 when George W. Bush toppled Democrat John Kerry to win a second term in the White House, though he added he believes Kerry won Wisconsin that year with the youth vote.

Flannery thinks the youthful Obama, who is 46 years old, could help keep young voters engaged this year. Ward agrees, saying he's seen strong evidence of young voter interest everywhere he's visited.

"I've been to Milwaukee, I've been to Green Bay, at the Obama offices there," Ward said. "At those places we're seeing college students from all over the state and all over the country engaged and much more involved and much more interested in the political process."

As for the election itself, Flannery said it'll likely be a tight race, with lots of people voting, as "we usually don't have blowouts" in Wisconsin.

Obama and McCain lead in the most recent polls, and Flannery believes Clinton has to have a good showing in Wisconsin if she wants to wrest away the momentum from of her Democratic rival.

"She'll have to start not just winning a few (primaries), but winning big to change around the whole dynamic of the thing," he said.

Reach Bob Petrie at bpetrie@sheboygan-press.com and 453-5129.

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Who's the big cheese this week in Democratic race? Wisconsin

12:00 AM CST on Sunday, February 17, 2008
By TODD J. GILLMAN Washington bureau tgillman@dallasnews.com

KENOSHA, Wis. – Sen. Barack Obama has spent days hopping from one college to the next, getting in front of thousands of Wisconsin voters at a time. But a good bratwurst is the quickest way to a voter's heart, so Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton made her pitch Saturday at the Brat Stop, a mecca of sausage, purveyor of salami and cheese, where hundreds of Democrats clogged the aisles like so much cholesterol.

RICK BOWMER/The Associated Press
While Mrs. Clinton stumped in Texas, Sen. Barack Obama had Wisconsin to himself for four days, starting with a rally to celebrate Tuesday's victories in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. He spoke Friday at a rally in Eau Claire. "We borrow money from the Chinese to buy oil from the Saudis. ... We've got to get back to fiscal responsibility," Mrs. Clinton declared, accusing President Bush of lavishing tax cuts on the wealthy, letting jobs slip overseas and destroying America's prestige. "You cannot be a global leader if no one is following."

Reeling from an eight-state losing streak, she badly needs some help from the cheeseheads in Tuesday's primary to put the brakes on her rival's momentum.

"I don't believe you just set a vision and rely on advisers. I think you have to roll your sleeves up and be a hands-on manager," she said, tweaking Mr. Obama.

But some analysts say a bit more engagement in Wisconsin might have been good for Mrs. Clinton.

While she worked Texas, Mr. Obama had Wisconsin to himself for four days, starting with a huge rally Tuesday night in Madison to celebrate that night's landslides in Maryland and Virginia.

And Mrs. Clinton decided Saturday to leave on Monday, a day earlier than previously announced.

"I care deeply about what happens here in this election," she insisted in Kenosha, blaming the change on the need to juggle commitments.

The rival camp scoffs, evoking the failed Giuliani-in-Florida ploy.

"The thing about Sen. Obama, he's willing to fight in every state. It's not like, 'I'm only going to Texas and wait there,' " said Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle, an Obama supporter. "I don't know what's must-win and what isn't. But when she talks about where her natural constituents are – this is a state that fits into that."

The Clinton side sought to tamp down expectations, even as it promoted the idea that she's still in great shape.

"This nomination process is long from over," senior strategist Harold Ickes told reporters Saturday, making clear that Mrs. Clinton is prepared to wage a floor fight at the party's convention.

With contests yet to come in 18 states, he argued, it's premature for Mr. Obama to claim an insurmountable edge.

As for Wisconsin, Mr. Ickes said, Mrs. Clinton "is going to hold her own," because in contrast to some of the recent Obama states, the demographics favor her, as they do in Texas and Ohio in two weeks: fewer blacks and highly educated whites; more women, Hispanics and "downscale voters."

As if on cue, one such voter appeared at the Brat Stop, when Mrs. Clinton called on Jade Bailey, an 11-year-old in a "Hillary" T-shirt.

The girl asked what she would do to help families that don't have homes – families like hers. The crowd fell silent as the senator prompted Jade's mother, Donna, to tell her story. She's a hairdresser. Folks aren't spending as much, so business is down, even as her house payment has spiked from $600 to $1,000. She expects to lose her home.

Her arm around the girl's shoulders, Mrs. Clinton decried the Bush administration's slow response to the housing crisis and called for a rate freeze on adjustable-rate mortgages.

"She's paid her dues. She has the country's interest at heart," said Lisa Niederer, 34, a social studies teacher in Kenosha, out in the crowd.

On Saturday night, the rivals appeared back to back in Milwaukee at a state Democratic Party fundraising dinner.

Mrs. Clinton recounted the sad story of Jade Bailey.

"I am reminded every single day why I do this," she said, adding. "The question is not who will make history but who will change America. ... The choice is really whether we are going to have a fighter, a doer and a champion again in the White House."

Mr. Obama poked at his rival.

"The stakes are too high to play the same old Washington games with the same old Washington players," he said, adding that they agree on one thing. "The next president needs to end the disastrous policies of George W. Bush."

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http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/02/17/more-on-a-hillary-comback.html

> Opinion > Michael Barone > More on a Hillary Comback
« Is Hillary Due for a Comeback?
More on a Hillary Comback
February 17, 2008 11:30 AM ET | Michael Barone | Permanent Link

With the help of thegreenpapers.com the invaluable Green Papers, I made some calculations in a best-case scenario for Hillary Clinton in the Wisconsin, Ohio, and Texas primaries. I assumed that Clinton won statewide in each case, and that Obama carried only congressional districts (or in Texas, state Senate districts) dominated by upscale white voters and/or black voters. This is an especially optimistic assumption in Wisconsin, where Clinton currently trails Obama by 4 or 5 percent in public polls. The results are as follows: a 44-30 delegate edge in Wisconsin, an 83-58 delegate edge in Ohio, and an 82-41 delegate edge in Texas. Overall this is an 80-delegate advantage, based (again I emphasize) on optimistic assumptions.

This would be enough to erase the current 58-delegate edge Obama has in total delegates according to Real Clear Politics. But not enough to overcome the 137-delegate edge he has among "pledged delegates," that is, those chosen in caucuses and primaries. And it doesn't account for the fact that Texas on March 4 will also have caucuses to select another 67 delegates. The Obama campaign has swamped the Clinton campaign in almost all the caucuses and probably has far more in the way of organization in Texas's 254 counties than the Clinton campaign does.

What about the other post-February contests? Here's my brief take on each:

Rhode Island primary, March 4. Clinton has done well with downscale Catholic voters, which accounts for most of the Rhode Island electorate. More like Massachusetts, which she carried, than Connecticut, which she lost.
Vermont primary, March 4. Obama all the way.
Wyoming county caucuses, March 8. If it's anything like Idaho, Obama.
Mississippi primary, March 11. Mississippi has the highest black percentage of any state, which suggests Obama will win. But if, as in Alabama and Louisiana, a fairly large number of whites choose to participate, then Clinton could make it competitive.
Democrats Abroad caucuses, March 15. I have to think Obama carries these worldly types.
Pennsylvania primary, April 22. The Pennsylvania numbers look a lot like the Ohio numbers.
Guam territorial convention, May 3 (tentative date). No clue.
Indiana primary, May 6. 9 percent black, 4 percent Hispanic. The Democratic primary electorate looks a lot like Ohio's. Could be favorable to Clinton.
North Carolina primary, May 6. 22 percent black, 5 percent Hispanic. The Democratic primary electorate is liable to be 30-35 percent black, possibly more, which is favorable to Obama. So is the fact that some of the Democratic primary electorate (especially in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill triangle, less so in Clinton) is upscale and culturally liberal. So half the electorate is tilted his way. This looks like Virginia with a considerably smaller Northern Virginia: Obama country, but by a considerably lesser margin.
West Virginia primary, May 13. Downscale, elderly, and overwhelmingly white, the primary electorate here presumably favors Clinton.
Kentucky primary, May 20. The Democratic primary electorate here is not as downscale, elderly, and overwhelmingly white as West Virginia's, but it comes fairly close. Favorable to Clinton.
Oregon primary, May 20. Obama won't likely win here by as much as he did in the Washington caucuses, but he's likely to win.
Montana primary, June 3. An interesting question. Obama won't be as strong here as in Western state caucuses.
South Dakota primary, June 3. Former Senator Tom Daschle is actively supporting Obama, but the state demographically looks more pro-Clinton.
Puerto Rico caucuses, June 7. I have written on these elsewhere. An interesting continuing tale.
My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in "pledged" delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the superdelegates start cascading to Obama. (Maybe they have: Congressman John Lewis has evidently switched.) But if Clinton loses either Ohio or Texas, that's a sign that the ground thereafter will be less favorable to her. Losing Ohio would suggest she can't carry Pennsylvania or Indiana. Losing Texas suggests she can't carry Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, or Kentucky. Losing either probably means the superdelegate cascade starts in torrents, and she falls well behind in total delegate count. In which case her candidacy is probably effectively over.

And even if she wins Ohio and Texas, she's still not likely, I think (no, I haven't done the delegate arithmetic yet), to accumulate enough "pledged" delegates to win without an edge in superdelegates, and perhaps without getting the Florida and, more problematically, Michigan delegations seated. But I certainly don't see her quitting in these circumstances.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/02/16/disallowed_delegates_fate_crucial_to_democrats/

Disallowed delegates' fate crucial to Democrats
DNC has no firm strategy to end standoff
Email|Print| Text size – + By Brian C. Mooney
Globe Staff / February 16, 2008
Because Barack Obama has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the delegate count, the fate of 366 disallowed delegates from Florida and Michigan could be critical to the dwindling number of scenarios for Clinton to win the nomination this summer.

more stories like thisThere's lots of chatter but no firm plan to resolve the Democrats' standoff over the states whose delegations would constitute about one-12th of the convention in Denver. At this point, the outcast delegates exist only on paper, and in the calculations of Hillary Clinton's campaign brain trust, which has been clamoring to have them seated when the party convenes late in August to nominate its presidential candidate.

After the national party stripped both states of delegates because they jumped ahead in the primary calendar - in violation of party rules - candidates boycotted both contests.

Even so, in Florida, Clinton would have earned 105 pledged delegates, 38 more than Obama's 67. In Michigan, where she was the only candidate to keep her name on the ballot, the state party has allotted her 73 delegates, 18 more than a bloc of 55 "uncommitted."

Obama's staff has dismissed the Clinton campaign's arguments as self-serving and hypocritical, and there were sparks of tension this week when leading fund-raisers in Florida for each candidate clashed over the issue, the Miami Herald reported.

Chris Korge, cochairman of Clinton's national fund-raising committee, sent out an e-mail alleging that "Sen. Obama writes us off as irrelevant and [Democratic National Committee chairman] Howard Dean tries to avoid the issue." Kirk Wagar, Obama's Florida finance chairman, called Korge's remarks "disingenuous" and "craven."

"Beat us on the field you agreed to and stop whining," Wagar said.

Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Convention, said the disputed delegates from the Florida and Michigan primaries shouldn't decide who wins the party's presidential nomination. "I don't think that any states that operated outside the rules of the party can be dispositive of who the nominee is," Pelosi said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "Political Capital with Al Hunt."

Unless there's a change or a compromise, the Florida and Michigan delegates - along with three US senators, 15 members of Congress, and a governor serving as "superdelegates" - will be watching the convention on television. When the Democratic National Committee punished both states, their superdelegates were also excluded.

There's been talk of do-over contests or some other compromise, but to date it's just back-channel discussion. National party officials appear willing to let the nominating process play out through more states to determine whether a candidate will emerge with a large enough delegate lead to render the Florida and Michigan issue moot.

"There's probably a sentiment to see a little bit more happen and clarify how these states would play in the process," said James Roosevelt Jr. of Massachusetts, cochairman of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which penalized the two states. He will serve as cochairman of the convention's Credentials Committee, which could take up the matter. "It will be a lot less controversial if the outcome is beginning to become clear."Continued...

"There are two options at this point, and they're the same options that have been there from the beginning," said Stacie Paxton, press secretary for the Democratic National Committee. "The states can run an alternative party-run process [such as a caucus], which they could do right away, but I don't think they want to do. Or they can appeal to the convention Credentials Committee."

Dean, who had suggested state caucuses as a solution, was not available for an interview, Paxton said.

Citing the expense and the potential backlash from voters in those states in November, party leaders in Florida and Michigan have rejected the idea of conducting another contest to resolve the dispute. Referring to it as "the coming train wreck," Senator Bill Nelson of Florida, a Clinton supporter, said, "You can't undo an election where 1.7 million Florida Democrats have voted in a secret ballot and replace it with a caucus that maybe 50,000 people would show up for."

Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, who has not endorsed a candidate, echoed that opinion. "I don't see a practical way to hold a caucus in Michigan," he said. "Given that 600,000 Michigan voters participated in a primary that was held in accordance with state law, it seems to me it would not be practical or fair to throw out the results of that election."

Under national party rules, makeup contests would have to be held by June 10 for the results to supersede the earlier primaries.

The Republican Party also sanctioned Michigan and Florida for moving up their primaries, but only took away half their delegates. And in contrast to the Democratic boycotts, there were vigorous GOP campaigns in both states.

Compared with other states in which the Democratic turnout far exceeded Republican, the Democratic turnout in both Michigan and Florida was lighter, with 590,000 Democrats voting in Michigan, compared with 868,000 Republicans. In Florida, 1.7 million Democrats cast ballots, compared with 1.9 million Republicans.

Ultimately, the matter could fall to the Credentials Committee, which, with 186 members, is larger than many state legislatures but does not have any authority until late June, 60 days before the opening of the convention. Dean appointed 25 members in mid-January before the delegate muddle emerged.

The other 161 members will be apportioned based on the outcomes of the caucuses and primaries in all the states. So, if Obama maintains his lead, he would control a majority of those additional members.

Among those already appointed by Dean, at least six donated to Clinton last year and five gave to Obama, according to a search of the database of the Center for Responsive Politics.

If the issue goes to the Credentials Committee, its report would be the first order of convention business. "If no one has a clear path to the nomination, then of course this could be significant," said Alice Germond, who, as the party's national secretary, certifies individual delegates for credentials.

"But we're all hopeful that one way or another it will be resolved without having our first vote at the convention be a test vote or a vote that in any way appears to show Democrats in disarray."

© Copyright 2008 Globe Newspaper Company.
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http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-asecsuperdelegate07020708feb07,0,2757285.story

nton-Obama squeaker puts attention on 'super delegates'
Compiled From Wire Reports
February 7, 2008
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Digg Del.icio.us Facebook Fark Google Newsvine Reddit Yahoo Print Reprints Post comment Text size: WASHINGTON - The standoff for the Democratic presidential nomination is turning 796 so-called "super delegates" into coveted prizes for rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

The two senators are aggressively courting the elected officials and party insiders who belong to that elite group after voters in 28 state contests during the past month have left the race in a virtual deadlock.

Neither Clinton nor Obama is close to the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination.

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The latest CNN delegate count shows Clinton narrowly leading Obama in total delegates, 818 to 730. The tally reflects delegates awarded during the past month, including Tuesday's contests in 22 states and those super delegates who have announced their preferences.

According to the CNN delegate count, 299 of the 796 super delegates have declared preferences, with 193 of those delegates backing Clinton and 106 backing Obama.

The latest Associated Press tally showed Clinton leading Obama in delegates, 1,000 to 902, without differentiating between the types of delegates.

Super delegates were created by Democratic Party bosses in 1982 in an effort to give elected officials greater influence over selection of the party nominee. The move was in response to Sen. Edward Kennedy's damaging primary race against President Carter in 1980 — a challenge by the Massachusetts Democrat that set the stage for Carter's defeat.

The group includes every Democratic member of Congress, every Democratic governor and all of the elected members of the Democratic National Committee.

Super delegates represent a powerful swing vote in a tight nomination contest. They are not bound by the results of state-by-state primaries. They will account for 20percent of the convention delegates who meet in Denver in late August to select the party's nominee.

Many super delegates have personal stakes in the electability of the party's presidential candidate because that candidate will lead the statewide ballot in their home state in the Nov.4 election when many of the officials seek re-election.

Battle continuing to August?
Clinton strategist Mark Penn said Clinton is urging unpledged governors, members of Congress and members of the Democratic National Committee to support her with claims that she is the most electable Democrat against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in November, assuming that McCain is the Republican presidential nominee.

Clinton may have a built-in edge in courting super delegates because many elected officials have ties to either Sen. Clinton or former President Clinton, stemming from the eight years of the Clinton presidency.

Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said the delegate-by-delegate contest that lies ahead could continue into the Democratic convention in Denver beginning Aug.25 in a development that puts an even greater premium on enlisting unpledged super delegates.

"Every single delegate will matter a great deal," Wolfson said. "Super delegates are going to be critically important."

Obama told a news conference in Chicago that he would fight any effort by Clinton to persuade party insiders to join her cause if he arrived at the Democratic National Convention with more pledged delegates selected in primaries and caucuses.

"If we come to the convention with more pledged delegates, then I think we can make a very strong argument that our constituencies have spoken," Obama said.

Obama insisted that he would be a stronger contender against McCain than Clinton, in what amounted to a fresh appeal for support from undecided super delegates.

"We are bringing in people who don't traditionally vote Democrat," Obama said. "That's part of what the super delegates are going to have to consider is who matches up best with a John McCain, who can appeal to independents in an effective way and who can even peel off some Republicans."

Though much of the super-delegate battle has focused on party insiders and officials, the Democratic National Committee has been trying to persuade Michigan and Florida to hold presidential caucuses so the delegates they lost for holding their January primaries could be seated at the convention.

Florida Dems: No new vote
But Florida Democratic Party spokesman Mark Bubriski said the party has no intention of holding another election.

"We've said all along that we're going forward with our delegate-selection program using the vote on January29," he said. "We've got more delegate applications than ever."

Michigan Democratic Chairman Mark Brewer said the DNC isn't saying anything it hasn't said before to Michigan and Florida.

"Everybody involved, the candidates, the DNC and we, need to remain open-minded. So if someone comes up with a creative way that meets everyone's interests, we can do that" and get the delegates seated, he said.

The party punished Florida and Michigan for moving up their primaries — Michigan to Jan.15 and Florida to Jan.29 — by stripping them of their convention delegates. But the consequences of the party's punitive action seems to grow in importance with every primary.

Obama's campaign, in fact, is forecasting that the race will remain deadlocked after the primaries end, and that the outcome may depend on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan are counted.

"This is only one of an infinite number of scenarios," Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said, adding that the release of the information was unintended.

Information from Hearst Newspapers, The Associated Press and Bloomberg News was used in compiling this report.

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Jewish functionaries stirring the Clinton-Obama race

By Akiva Eldar

Tensions in the race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination are mirrored in the American Jewish community. As the gap between the front-runners narrowed in the primaries, the clash between the two Jewish camps has become more heated.

Official Israel is making an effort to maintain a respectable neutrality. Has-beens are being called into the ring, like a former ambassador to Washington, Dan Ayalon, who jabbed Obama in a sensitive spot - the volume of his support for Israel. Advertisement

Ayalon is not alone. Jewish advisers and non-Jewish supporters are almost obsessively occupied with searching for skeletons in the black candidate's past.

The Republican Party's neoconservative clique is trawling archives for "anti-Israeli" essays by advisers who had been seen in Obama's staff. Robert Malley, who was President Bill Clinton's special assistant during the Camp David talks, joined Obama. The neoconservatives reached Malley's father, a Jew of Egyptian descent, who, alas, kept childhood ties with Yasser Arafat. Malley junior is accused of publishing a joint article with an Oslo-supporting Palestinian, in which they dared to argue that Ehud Barak played a major role in the Camp David summit's failure in July 2000.

Obama is working hard to allay the fears of "Israel's friends," a description reserved mainly for activists of the pro-Israeli lobby AIPAC and for Malcolm Hoenlein, the executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents. As far as they're concerned, whoever doesn't support the Israeli government's policy 100 percent is unfit for leadership.

Clinton is reaping the fruit of her investment in the Jewish community and Israel since first running for a Senate seat in New York. She is also benefiting from Bill Clinton's popularity in synagogues, Israeli homes and among his rich Jewish friends.

A long list of initiatives and declarations has erased from the collective Jewish memory the first lady's "slip" in spring 1998, after Arafat threatened Benjamin Netanyahu with a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state. Clinton then said at a gathering of Israeli and Palestinian youth, members of the Seeds of Peace organization, that it was important to have a "functioning modern" Palestinian state." She also said "it will be in the long-term interest of the Middle East for Palestine to be a state...responsible for its citizens' well-being...education and health care.''

Since then she has commended the Congress' decision to stop the aid to the Palestinians if they declared a state unilaterally. She also praised the separation fence and said that Ariel Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount was a "legitimate visit to a holy site."

She adopted a more aggressive stance than Obama about Iran.

Clinton's shift to the right on the peace process alienated some of her old friends on the Jewish left. But they remain convinced that if she wins the White House, she will quickly reclaim her old positions. Experience has taught that the link between a presidential candidate's statements and an elected president's actions is flimsy at best.

For example, since 1967 it's hard to find a candidate who did not promise to move the United States' embassy to Jerusalem. When Yitzhak Rabin reminded Gerald Ford of that promise, the president explained to him that life looked different from the Oval Office. The forecasts and evaluations regarding American politicians' basic positions regarding the Middle East also have a tendency to prove false. Thus, for example, Hafez Assad hoped for George Bush's victory over Al Gore. He counted on the Bush family's ties to the Saudi royal family and on its addiction to oil. The outcome is known.

And after all that, surveys conducted by Jewish organizations show that the candidates' positions on interior affairs, especially social issues like workers' rights, abortion, stem cell research and medical insurance, interest the Jewish Democratic voters more than their positions on moving the American embassy to Jerusalem or evacuating some illegal outpost in the territories.

That doesn't deter a few Jewish political wheeler dealers (elected by no one) from stirring the boiling cauldron.